Opinion: Can Angela Rayner Build 1.5 Million Homes by 2030? By Russell Quirk 

Let’s get something straight first of all. Governments do not build houses and Angela Rayner certainly doesn’t.

In fact, the state has not provided housing itself since the 1980’s when council housing was still a thing. Indeed in the 1960’s when 300,000 homes were last built each year the majority were built by local authorities and, of course, predominated by New Towns built by state sponsored development corporations. Yet the Local Government Association reveals that in the last decade an average of just 1,400 council houses were built each year.

There is a long way to go therefore.

In terms of general housing construction recent history also tells us that around 200,000 new dwellings are completed per annum and therefore the aspiration, some may say pledge, from government to build over 300,000 units represents a 50% uplift overnight. A tall order indeed.

But it’s worse than a tall order. Building 1.5 million properties between now and the end of this Parliament is impossible. There, I said it, it’s impossible.

Here’s why.

First, most houses are delivered by the top 10 PLC developers such as Persimmon, Bovis, Bellway and Taylor Wimpey. They are all pretty content with their 10,000 a year output and their resources and their P&Ls are geared up accordingly. To add 50% to that immediately is not only impossible it is also undesirable from the point of view of the effect that this increase would have on house prices. A sudden surge in availability would put downward pressure on values and result in less revenue per unit being achieved. Why would X, Y or Z PLC want to contribute to their own revenue dilution and that’s even if there is the demand to buy the additional output created?

But that’s not all. Boosting volumes by 50% also means 50% more bricks, concrete, roof tiles, bathrooms, cabling and pipework. How will this increase in materials supply manifest itself at a whim?

Moreover, labour. Where will the additional plumbers, bricklayers and chippies come from now that we have exited the EU?

So you see, matching the political headlines to reality is a hiding to nothing.

Despite the warm words from this government just like the last, 300,000 new homes per year is a pipedream.

Let us know if you agree. Is Angela Rayner misguided? Is she just playing politics with housing or can she actually achieve that which no one has since Harold MacMillan?